Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 01 2020 | 2016 | 22604 | 59 | 7 | 399 | 618 |
| October 02 2020 | 2058 | 23129 | 60 | 7 | 408 | 582 |
| October 03 2020 | 2100 | 23296 | 63 | 7 | 397 | 573 |
| October 04 2020 | 2123 | 23391 | 65 | 7 | 389 | 537 |
| October 05 2020 | 2152 | 23394 | 68 | 7 | 376 | 535 |
| October 06 2020 | 2184 | 23558 | 69 | 7 | 344 | 534 |
| October 07 2020 | 2211 | 24159 | 69 | 8 | 324 | 508 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 4% | 13 | 0.11% | 22 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.1 | 13.9% | 45 | 0.33% | 76 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 8.1 | 27.8% | 90 | 0.43% | 147 | 0.7% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.9 | 15.1% | 49 | 0.36% | 74 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.4 | 10.2% | 33 | 0.32% | 46 | 0.44% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 5.1 | 15.4% | 50 | 0.4% | 71 | 0.57% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.9 | 8% | 26 | 0.23% | 45 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.0 | 6.8% | 22 | 0.21% | 29 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 27 | 30.1 | 100% | 324 | 0.31% | 508 | 0.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 01 2020 | 595 | 15034 | 24 | 0 | 115 | 148 |
| October 02 2020 | 610 | 15169 | 24 | 0 | 128 | 154 |
| October 03 2020 | 630 | 15327 | 25 | 0 | 141 | 164 |
| October 04 2020 | 641 | 15413 | 26 | 0 | 143 | 165 |
| October 05 2020 | 649 | 15501 | 27 | 0 | 132 | 169 |
| October 06 2020 | 667 | 15620 | 30 | 0 | 145 | 185 |
| October 07 2020 | 698 | 15761 | 29 | 0 | 152 | 209 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.0 | 7.2% | 11 | 0.14% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.7 | 5.9% | 9 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 1.7 | 9.9% | 15 | 0.21% | 28 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.9 | 18.4% | 28 | 0.33% | 32 | 0.38% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 2.1 | 13.2% | 20 | 0.26% | 25 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 2.7 | 18.4% | 28 | 0.29% | 41 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.6 | 9.2% | 14 | 0.17% | 22 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.3 | 17.1% | 26 | 0.37% | 28 | 0.39% |
| All ages | 31 | 16.1 | 100% | 152 | 0.24% | 209 | 0.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 01 2020 | 498 | 9085 | 23 | 6 | 78 | 93 |
| October 02 2020 | 504 | 9093 | 24 | 6 | 82 | 97 |
| October 03 2020 | 516 | 9140 | 24 | 6 | 91 | 105 |
| October 04 2020 | 522 | 9143 | 24 | 6 | 85 | 102 |
| October 05 2020 | 522 | 9150 | 24 | 6 | 78 | 102 |
| October 06 2020 | 528 | 9157 | 26 | 6 | 72 | 106 |
| October 07 2020 | 535 | 9161 | 28 | 6 | 69 | 110 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 01 2020 | 3205 | 26119 | 50 | 3 | 583 | 1084 |
| October 02 2020 | 3245 | 26344 | 52 | 3 | 547 | 870 |
| October 03 2020 | 3284 | 26591 | 54 | 4 | 499 | 809 |
| October 04 2020 | 3299 | 26653 | 55 | 4 | 461 | 731 |
| October 05 2020 | 3336 | 26669 | 55 | 4 | 390 | 714 |
| October 06 2020 | 3373 | 26864 | 55 | 6 | 383 | 675 |
| October 07 2020 | 3399 | 27309 | 58 | 8 | 352 | 614 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.1% | 4 | 0.03% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 6.7 | 19.9% | 70 | 0.42% | 135 | 0.82% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 10.4 | 28.7% | 101 | 0.47% | 203 | 0.95% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.3 | 11.6% | 41 | 0.3% | 63 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 3.7 | 8.2% | 29 | 0.21% | 43 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.4 | 9.9% | 35 | 0.25% | 57 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.1 | 10.2% | 36 | 0.25% | 53 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 3 | 4.4 | 10.2% | 36 | 0.28% | 53 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 26 | 38.4 | 100% | 352 | 0.3% | 614 | 0.52% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 01 2020 | 10201 | 199479 | 379 | 43 | 1306 | 1959 |
| October 02 2020 | 10217 | 200458 | 382 | 43 | 1270 | 1762 |
| October 03 2020 | 10339 | 201164 | 384 | 43 | 1299 | 1704 |
| October 04 2020 | 10452 | 201238 | 386 | 43 | 1249 | 1637 |
| October 05 2020 | 10514 | 201655 | 387 | 43 | 1169 | 1619 |
| October 06 2020 | 10671 | 203188 | 393 | 43 | 1183 | 1724 |
| October 07 2020 | 10734 | 204606 | 400 | 43 | 1127 | 1694 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 5.7 | 4.6% | 52 | 0.09% | 70 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 16.9 | 15.4% | 174 | 0.24% | 314 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 18.6 | 22.5% | 254 | 0.24% | 426 | 0.41% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 10.1 | 16.9% | 190 | 0.25% | 271 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 8.3 | 11.8% | 133 | 0.2% | 198 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 11.9 | 14.3% | 161 | 0.25% | 217 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 9.7 | 9.2% | 104 | 0.19% | 129 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 2 | 5.3 | 5.2% | 59 | 0.12% | 69 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 63 | 86.4 | 100% | 1127 | 0.21% | 1694 | 0.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 01 2020 | 125161 | 1434721 | 7409 | 1348 | 22663 | 30415 |
| October 02 2020 | 127906 | 1445571 | 7506 | 1353 | 23736 | 30627 |
| October 03 2020 | 130798 | 1456763 | 7588 | 1372 | 24866 | 31236 |
| October 04 2020 | 132663 | 1465713 | 7646 | 1377 | 24339 | 31436 |
| October 05 2020 | 134359 | 1472577 | 7702 | 1381 | 23531 | 31861 |
| October 06 2020 | 136379 | 1482116 | 7810 | 1399 | 22734 | 32209 |
| October 07 2020 | 138698 | 1493304 | 7951 | 1415 | 22836 | 32766 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 77 | 76.0 | 3.3% | 743 | 0.12% | 1093 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 207 | 230.4 | 10.1% | 2313 | 0.31% | 3670 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 378 | 421.4 | 18.5% | 4218 | 0.56% | 6438 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 350 | 354.0 | 15.4% | 3525 | 0.47% | 4937 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 352 | 353.7 | 14.7% | 3353 | 0.48% | 4684 | 0.67% |
| 50-59 | 411 | 401.3 | 17% | 3893 | 0.48% | 5426 | 0.67% |
| 60-69 | 303 | 288.3 | 11.9% | 2714 | 0.36% | 3723 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 241 | 221.1 | 9.1% | 2077 | 0.32% | 2795 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 2319 | 2346.3 | 100% | 22836 | 0.39% | 32766 | 0.56% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.5 | 55.9 | 70.2 | 30.1 | 44.7 | 12% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.3 | 16.1 | 8 | 11.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 37.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.9 | 81.6 | 95.4 | 38.4 | 73.6 | 14.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 44.2 | 41 | 86.4 | 121.9 | 8.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.3 | 48.5 | 85.1 | 2346.3 | 2011.9 | 19% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1875"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges