Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

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Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 01 2020 2016 22604 59 7 399 618
October 02 2020 2058 23129 60 7 408 582
October 03 2020 2100 23296 63 7 397 573
October 04 2020 2123 23391 65 7 389 537
October 05 2020 2152 23394 68 7 376 535
October 06 2020 2184 23558 69 7 344 534
October 07 2020 2211 24159 69 8 324 508
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.6 4% 13 0.11% 22 0.19%
10-19 4 4.1 13.9% 45 0.33% 76 0.56%
20-29 2 8.1 27.8% 90 0.43% 147 0.7%
30-39 3 3.9 15.1% 49 0.36% 74 0.54%
40-49 4 3.4 10.2% 33 0.32% 46 0.44%
50-59 11 5.1 15.4% 50 0.4% 71 0.57%
60-69 1 2.9 8% 26 0.23% 45 0.39%
70+ 1 2.0 6.8% 22 0.21% 29 0.28%
All ages 27 30.1 100% 324 0.31% 508 0.49%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 01 2020 595 15034 24 0 115 148
October 02 2020 610 15169 24 0 128 154
October 03 2020 630 15327 25 0 141 164
October 04 2020 641 15413 26 0 143 165
October 05 2020 649 15501 27 0 132 169
October 06 2020 667 15620 30 0 145 185
October 07 2020 698 15761 29 0 152 209
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.0 7.2% 11 0.14% 13 0.17%
10-19 1 0.7 5.9% 9 0.11% 18 0.21%
20-29 4 1.7 9.9% 15 0.21% 28 0.39%
30-39 3 2.9 18.4% 28 0.33% 32 0.38%
40-49 9 2.1 13.2% 20 0.26% 25 0.32%
50-59 6 2.7 18.4% 28 0.29% 41 0.42%
60-69 2 1.6 9.2% 14 0.17% 22 0.26%
70+ 6 3.3 17.1% 26 0.37% 28 0.39%
All ages 31 16.1 100% 152 0.24% 209 0.32%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 01 2020 498 9085 23 6 78 93
October 02 2020 504 9093 24 6 82 97
October 03 2020 516 9140 24 6 91 105
October 04 2020 522 9143 24 6 85 102
October 05 2020 522 9150 24 6 78 102
October 06 2020 528 9157 26 6 72 106
October 07 2020 535 9161 28 6 69 110

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 01 2020 3205 26119 50 3 583 1084
October 02 2020 3245 26344 52 3 547 870
October 03 2020 3284 26591 54 4 499 809
October 04 2020 3299 26653 55 4 461 731
October 05 2020 3336 26669 55 4 390 714
October 06 2020 3373 26864 55 6 383 675
October 07 2020 3399 27309 58 8 352 614
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 0.3 1.1% 4 0.03% 7 0.06%
10-19 3 6.7 19.9% 70 0.42% 135 0.82%
20-29 3 10.4 28.7% 101 0.47% 203 0.95%
30-39 3 4.3 11.6% 41 0.3% 63 0.46%
40-49 3 3.7 8.2% 29 0.21% 43 0.32%
50-59 3 4.4 9.9% 35 0.25% 57 0.4%
60-69 6 4.1 10.2% 36 0.25% 53 0.37%
70+ 3 4.4 10.2% 36 0.28% 53 0.41%
All ages 26 38.4 100% 352 0.3% 614 0.52%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 01 2020 10201 199479 379 43 1306 1959
October 02 2020 10217 200458 382 43 1270 1762
October 03 2020 10339 201164 384 43 1299 1704
October 04 2020 10452 201238 386 43 1249 1637
October 05 2020 10514 201655 387 43 1169 1619
October 06 2020 10671 203188 393 43 1183 1724
October 07 2020 10734 204606 400 43 1127 1694
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 5.7 4.6% 52 0.09% 70 0.12%
10-19 10 16.9 15.4% 174 0.24% 314 0.44%
20-29 13 18.6 22.5% 254 0.24% 426 0.41%
30-39 8 10.1 16.9% 190 0.25% 271 0.35%
40-49 12 8.3 11.8% 133 0.2% 198 0.3%
50-59 9 11.9 14.3% 161 0.25% 217 0.33%
60-69 5 9.7 9.2% 104 0.19% 129 0.24%
70+ 2 5.3 5.2% 59 0.12% 69 0.14%
All ages 63 86.4 100% 1127 0.21% 1694 0.31%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 01 2020 125161 1434721 7409 1348 22663 30415
October 02 2020 127906 1445571 7506 1353 23736 30627
October 03 2020 130798 1456763 7588 1372 24866 31236
October 04 2020 132663 1465713 7646 1377 24339 31436
October 05 2020 134359 1472577 7702 1381 23531 31861
October 06 2020 136379 1482116 7810 1399 22734 32209
October 07 2020 138698 1493304 7951 1415 22836 32766
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 77 76.0 3.3% 743 0.12% 1093 0.17%
10-19 207 230.4 10.1% 2313 0.31% 3670 0.48%
20-29 378 421.4 18.5% 4218 0.56% 6438 0.85%
30-39 350 354.0 15.4% 3525 0.47% 4937 0.65%
40-49 352 353.7 14.7% 3353 0.48% 4684 0.67%
50-59 411 401.3 17% 3893 0.48% 5426 0.67%
60-69 303 288.3 11.9% 2714 0.36% 3723 0.49%
70+ 241 221.1 9.1% 2077 0.32% 2795 0.44%
All ages 2319 2346.3 100% 22836 0.39% 32766 0.56%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
48.5 55.9 70.2 30.1 44.7 12%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
32.3 16.1 8 11.8%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
24.3 6.4 6.4 37.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
51.9 81.6 95.4 38.4 73.6 14.1%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
31 44.2 41 86.4 121.9 8.6%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
56.3 48.5 85.1 2346.3 2011.9 19%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1875"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red